Global offshore drilling market is expected to recover more than 500 rigs in 2020

Abstract The rising international oil prices and significant cost-effectiveness have prompted oil and gas producers to put the offshore exploration and development plan, which is not economically viable at the bottom of the market, on the agenda. Since the beginning of this year, both the overall number and the general utilization rate of the offshore drilling platform market have shown a significant upward trend.

The rising international oil prices and significant cost-effectiveness have prompted oil and gas producers to put the offshore exploration and development plan, which is not economically viable at the bottom of the market, on the agenda. Since the beginning of this year, both the overall number and the general utilization rate of the offshore drilling platform market have shown a significant upward trend, and full recovery in the next few years is expected.

Demand continues to rise in the next two years

Market research firm IHS Markit pointed out in its latest World Rig Forecast: Short-Term Trends report that the number of offshore drilling platforms will continue to rise between 2018 and 2020, especially in deepwater projects. Significant.

IHS Markit expects the number of global offshore mobile drilling platforms, including jack-ups and floating rigs, to increase by 13% between 2018 and 2020, when the number of offshore offshore platforms is expected to reach 521 seats, more than 453 expected in 2018.

The Middle East will be the driving force behind the growth in demand for offshore drilling platforms worldwide, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates leading major growth. Justin Smith, an analyst at IHS Markit offshore drilling platform and one of the "reports", said: "Only a Saudi Aramco company can account for one-third of the increase."

“The global offshore oil and gas market is coming out of the doldrums,” adds Justin Smith. “In a broad sense, the rise in demand for offshore drilling platforms worldwide is mainly attributable to the steady rise in oil prices. In addition, the cost of cutting offshore industries has increased in recent years. Oil and gas producers reassessed offshore development plans."

The US Oil and Gas Journal pointed out that the world's major oil and gas giants are returning to deep water, and the current target cost price is basically locked below the oil price of 40 US dollars / barrel. Schlumberger, the world's largest oil service company, also said in an interview with the Financial Times that he is re-planning the deepwater drilling service business. It is expected that this year's deepwater drilling activity will increase by 10% compared with last year and will be more active next year.

IHS Markit expects that the demand for deepwater platforms will explode in 2019 and 2020. West Africa will be the main gathering place for deepwater activities. Nigeria, Angola and Ghana will lead major growth, while activities in Namibia, Mauritania and Senegal will also have rise.

Self-elevating drilling platform has bottomed out

IHS Markit expects the global demand for jack-up rigs to rise from 321 this year to 352 in 2020, an increase of 9.7%. During this period, the demand for jack-up rigs in North West Europe, Central America, West Africa and the Indian Ocean increased relatively little.

It is worth mentioning that the number of jack-up rigs in the US Gulf of Mexico is recovering from only four historical lows in October 2016. It is expected that the number of jack-up rigs in the region will reach 9 this year, to 2020. It is expected to achieve 11 or more in the year. “The current forecast is based on projects that have been announced or under construction by oil and gas companies and oil service providers. It is not ruled out that as offshore drilling activities become more active, more additional drilling projects will emerge,” said Justin Smith.

Shelf Drilling, the world's largest offshore jacking contractor and UAE drilling company, pointed out that the market utilization of jack-up rigs has rebounded this year and it is expected that demand will further increase in the future. Bizjournals quoted David Mullen, CEO of the company, as saying that since the beginning of 2017, the utilization rate of the global jack-up rig has gradually increased, with the price of commodities such as oil rising sharply, the core area of ​​the company in 2019. The demand for jack-up rigs will increase further.

It is understood that the core areas of Shelf Drilling include the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean, India, West Africa and Southeast Asia. In the first half of this year, the company's 28 jack-up rigs have been leased out, and eight more are available for rental. David Mullen said: "The jack-up rig market has bottomed out and is recovering from historical lows."

Floating drilling platform has obvious growth

In the next few years, with the deepening of global deepwater exploration and development activities, the floating drilling platform market is growing significantly, and the demand prospects of semi-submersibles and drillships are very optimistic.

IHS Markit expects that the average annual demand for semi-submersible drilling rigs will increase significantly from 2018 to 2020, an increase of more than 25%, and is expected to rise from 71 in 2018 to 89 in 2020. The North West Europe region will account for one-third of the increase in demand for semi-submersible drilling rigs. However, due to the relatively harsh development environment in the region, the competition in the next four years will be fierce. In addition, North American, South American and Asia Pacific regions have greater demand for semi-submersible drilling rigs. Australia/New Zealand and the Indian Ocean are also expected to see a small increase, and the Far East will be flat.

In terms of drilling ships, IHS Markit believes that North America and South America are the main areas driving demand for drilling vessels. North America is mainly due to oil and gas producers re-launching new projects, while South America is driven by US oil giant Exxon Mobil's exploration activities in Guyana and the Brazilian salt oil project. IHS Markit expects that the number of global drilling vessels will reach 79 by 2020, an increase of more than 27% from 62 in 2018.

In addition, Transocean's acquisition of the Cyprus ultra-deepwater drilling company Ocean Rig has also confirmed the recovery potential of the floating drilling platform market. On September 4, Transocean Drilling announced the acquisition of Ocean Rig in cash and stock, including the latter's debt, which was worth $2.7 billion. After the completion of the acquisition, Transocean Drilling will have 57 high-profile floating drilling vessels, surpassing British offshore drilling contractor Ensco to become the world's largest floating drilling ship contractor, while drilling in ultra-deep water and harsh environments. The ability has also been further enhanced. The Wall Street Journal reported that Ocean Rig currently has nine high-profile ultra-deepwater drilling vessels and two semi-submersible drilling platforms adapted to severe weather, and two high-profile ultra-deepwater drilling vessels will be in 2019. Delivery in the third quarter and the third quarter of 2020.

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